GPU substitution index
Tibo Drought
— PT
Equities close 2026-09-21
GPU tape 2026-09-22
Open drought
9d 11h
Since Astra quality issues · 2026-09-12 1:09 AM PT
100 = two missed weekly windows. Natural Codex weekly still rolls without Tibo.
Basket this drought
+7.8%
Equal-weight 8 names, last close vs last reset
GPU index this drought
-2.8%
Cloud list-price median, rebased
RTX 4090 · 7 day
+16.2%
$0.74 / GPU-hr · local substitute
Announced reset
3:00 AM PT
Tibo posted “3am on a tuesday.” Community reads this as a banked reset, not a global usage refill.
The substitution thesis
When Tibo waits, Codex goes dry. Builders who still have work to ship rent H100s, buy 4090s, and pull GPU-server capex forward. Drought is demand.
Droughts ≥ 7 days: basket +5.4% avg · n=17
Droughts ≤ 3 days: basket -0.1% avg · n=20
Long minus short: +5.5% · corr 0.42
Overlay
Drought vs silicon
Sawtooth is days since the last Tibo usage reset. Lines are rebased to 100 at the left edge of this window.
Shaded rust: the 67-day winter drought (2025-12-25 → 2026-03-02) and the open drought since 2026-09-12. Right axis is drought days; left axis is indexed price.
Each drought
Length vs basket return
One dot per interval between Tibo usage resets. Further right = he waited longer.
Longest waits
When the button slept
| Window | Days | Basket | GPU idx |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open now2026-09-12 → 2026-09-21 | 9d | +7.8% | -2.8% |
| After blocked requests2025-12-25 → 2026-03-02 | 67d | +14.7% | — |
| After an outage2025-09-16 → 2025-11-05 | 50d | +18.7% | — |
| Paid-plan weekend2026-04-27 → 2026-05-16 | 19d | +17.0% | — |
| After high latency2025-11-05 → 2025-11-22 | 17d | -14.2% | — |
| New plugins, fresh limits2026-03-10 → 2026-03-26 | 16d | -3.5% | — |
| Service disruption2025-12-02 → 2025-12-16 | 14d | -4.4% | — |
| The double reset2026-06-03 → 2026-06-17 | 14d | -5.2% | -1.2% |
| Fixes propagated2026-08-12 → 2026-08-23 | 11d | -1.9% | +5.9% |
| Recovery refresh2025-11-22 → 2025-12-02 | 10d | +8.0% | — |
| Another hour, another reset2026-06-29 → 2026-07-09 | 10d | -4.2% | -1.6% |
GPU price tape
What silicon costs today
On-demand GPU-hour. Local cards are the escape hatch when Codex is dry — 4090 is the tell.
PoC Index
Composite · composite
1.2
7d +0.5% · 30d +1.7%
RTX 4090
Local substitute · 24 GB
$0.74/h
7d +16.2% · 30d +18.3%
RTX 5090
Local substitute · 32 GB
$0.99/h
7d +6.6% · 30d +15.3%
RTX A6000
Local substitute · 48 GB
$0.60/h
7d +5.3% · 30d +5.3%
L40S
Datacenter · 48 GB
$1.56/h
7d +1.8% · 30d +2.7%
H100 SXM
Datacenter · 80 GB
$3.87/h
7d -3.0% · 30d 0.0%
H200 SXM
Datacenter · 141 GB
$4.67/h
7d +1.8% · 30d +1.8%
B200
Datacenter · 180 GB
$6.84/h
7d 0.0% · 30d 0.0%
B300
Datacenter · 288 GB
$7.88/h
7d +4.1% · 30d +5.1%
GPU complex
Eight names, equal weight
NVDA NVIDIA
Datacenter + consumer GPUs
227.38
drought +4.2% · 1d +2.3%
AMD AMD
Instinct MI + Radeon
615.52
drought +19.3% · 1d +9.9%
AVGO Broadcom
Custom AI ASICs, networking
362.66
drought +0.2% · 1d +1.4%
TSM TSMC
Foundry for every GPU
445.14
drought +2.7% · 1d +2.4%
SMCI Super Micro
GPU servers
41.20
drought +2.7% · 1d +5.4%
MU Micron
HBM memory
1,043.96
drought +7.0% · 1d +2.8%
ARM Arm
CPU IP in AI racks
322.90
drought +21.9% · 1d +17.2%
DELL Dell
GPU servers & workstations
575.31
drought +1.4% · 1d +1.3%
Tibo log